In Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, revolutions have not only created political chaos, but an economic and social disaster.
"It's worse than before." From Cairo to Tunis or Tripoli in comfortable houses or slums, the phrase returns as a nagging litany. The Arab Spring has not only led to a great political chaos. The poor are poorer, the middle classes rolled the encalminées savings. Misery progresses.
In Tunisia, the adoption of an enlightened constitution is good news. Muslim brothers were forced to accept what they now refused yesterday. But this democratic progress can not hide the real state of the country. The middle class, which represents half of the population has an average income of 800 dinars per month, about 350 euros. Unemployment is at least 16%. At least 100,000 jobs will be created each year to absorb the number of young people entering the labor market. We are very far away. Tourism is severely affected, the industry, including textiles, is penalized by the disorders and hit by the crisis in Europe. The 2014 budget, which overestimates the growth and debt capacity is considered unrealistic by experts.
In Egypt, it's worse. Marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sissi and the army control the power after overthrowing Mohamed Morsi and crushed the Muslim Brotherhood. But the economy is going to rack and ruin. It is estimated that the revolution has already cost $ 7.5 billion to the country. Wages have fallen by 11%, prices of basic foodstuffs have them, increased by 10%. A quarter of Egyptians live on less than two dollars a day. Foreign exchange reserves have shrunk by two thirds. Tourism, which provides 12% of GDP is at half mast. Under Mohamed Morsi, the Qatar, sponsor of the Muslim Brotherhood, which provided for the month of Egypt. Saudi Arabia, protector of the military, took over and opened her purse: five billion dollars in aid. Billion in cash, two billion of petroleum products, two billion in bank deposit. Only the revenues of the Suez Canal remained at approximately $ 400 million per year. The toll is always a safe bet ... As for foreign investment, they are three times lower than during the decade 2000-2010.
In Libya, it is even more apocalyptic. Since July 2013, the militias block three oil ports in the East. Production of crude, which provides 96% of export earnings of the country increased from 1.5 million barrels per day to 250 000. Shortfall in six months: nine billion dollars. Tuesday, February 4, Prime Minister Ali Zeidan said he had ordered the army to regain control of the situation. Time will tell whether these martial declarations are implemented. The heavily armed groups that block ports are demanding greater autonomy for Cyrenaica. And, of course, a sharing of oil wealth. To this must be added the jihadist groups marauding in the Fezzan in the south, and swarm throughout the area.
The Arab Spring has become very moody.
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